NOAA

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is walking back its prediction in May of a 70% percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season for 2015.

The new outlook issued last week is a 90% chance of a below-normal year: the highest confidence level issued by NOAA since it began issuing seasonal hurricane predictions in 1998.

Lead Forecaster Gerry Bell points to a robust El Nino in the Pacific.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean is underway, along with calls for residents along the coastline to be ready.

Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a slower than usual season, with six to 11 named storms, three to six possibly hurricanes, and one or two of those Category-3 or higher. Lead meteorologist Gerry Bell says the main player is El Nino.

New Hurricane Maps Focus On Storm Surge

May 26, 2015
NOAA

Contrary to what most people might think, the number one killer from a hurricane is water, not wind. A hurricane warning, however, has always been issued for the wind, not the water. 

This conflict of messaging has prompted the National Hurricane Center to re-think their products in recent years.  Social science research and upgrades in GIS technology have enabled them to better define where and when the water might be life-threatening, and this is not always at the same location or at the same time the hurricane force winds may arrive.

NOAA

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity. But officials are reminding coastal residents not to let down their guard.

After numerous predictions had already been made, including from William Gray and his team at Colorado State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weighed in. It predicted 8-13 named storms; 3-6 hurricanes and of those, 1-2 major storms.

NOAA

Forecasters predict a warming of the central Pacific Ocean known as “El Nino” will provide a break for weather-weary Americans this year.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Nino watch Thursday. In a typical El Nino year, there’s a stronger flow of wind at the Jet Stream level, and a stronger Jet Stream over the southern U.S.

Jeff Garmon, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mobile, says that can increase the potential for severe storms: tornados, severe thunderstorms, squall lines, things of that nature.

Hurricane Season 2013 Ends With Little Action

Dec 3, 2013
National Hurricane Center

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ended Saturday, going out for the Gulf Coast in the same manner as much of its six-month run – rather quietly.

Overall, there were 13 named storms, one more than average for the season. Andrea was the first and only one to make landfall in the U.S. Her tornadoes, heavy rain and flooding in parts of the South caused millions in damage and claimed one life.

The season’s two hurricanes -- Ingrid and Humberto – were the fewest since 1982 and well below the average of six. Neither became major hurricanes of Category-3 or higher.